The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has been continuously lowered

CITIC Securities pointed out that the increasing pressure on the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is mainly due to the downward pressure on economic fundamentals caused by the new crown epidemic and the strengthening of the US dollar.

From the perspective of short-term factors, according to the analysis of the research report of CICC, the RMB exchange rate exceeded the key point of 6.40, which aroused the attention of the transaction level on the opening of a wave of the RMB exchange rate. In addition, the high energy prices and the increase in the amount of foreign exchange purchased by importers are also short-term triggers for the rapid decline in the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar.

According to some institutional analysis, in the context of the spread of domestic epidemics, disturbances in the supply chain and the official opening of the interest rate hike cycle by the Federal Reserve, the RMB exchange rate may further release depreciation pressure.

In addition, the pace of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve has accelerated, the US dollar index has strengthened, and the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond has risen, putting the RMB exchange rate under short-term pressure. The research report of CICC pointed out that under the current situation of the rapid narrowing and even inversion of the interest rate gap between China and the United States, the pressure of short-term cross-border securities investment outflow has increased.

The recent decline in the RMB exchange rate, combined with policy stimulus, has increased the attention of the textile and apparel sector. On April 22, the concept sectors of RMB depreciation such as clothing and home textiles and textile manufacturing rose sharply. Masters rose by 13%, Korrun shares rose by more than 10%, and Yingfeng shares rose by the daily limit.

CICC predicts that the short-term target of the RMB exchange rate is in the range of 6.45-6.55. In the medium and long term, the RMB exchange rate should gradually return to the long-term equilibrium level. Century Securities analysis said that under the trend of depreciation, it is good for export-oriented textiles and clothing.

In addition to the impact of exchange rates, there are also new incentives for textiles and clothing on the policy side. On April 21, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission issued guidance on the high-quality development of the industrial textile industry. Development goals: By 2025, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size will increase by about 6% annually, and 3 to 5 enterprises will enter the first echelon of global industrial textiles. The ability of scientific and technological innovation has been significantly improved. The R&D expenditure of key enterprises in the industry accounts for 3% of the main business income, the application of recycled fibers and biomass fibers accounts for 15%, and the numerical control rate of key processes of non-woven fabric enterprises reaches 70%. Manufacturing and green manufacturing play a significant role in improving the quality and efficiency of the industry, and the overall competitiveness of the industry is further enhanced.

On the same day, the Ministry of Commerce stated that it will cooperate with relevant departments to select some regions to carry out pilot projects for the integration of domestic and foreign trade. This policy will cultivate a group of domestic and foreign trade integrated business enterprises, build a group of domestic and foreign trade integration development platforms, and form a group of replicable and popularized experiences and models, which are also potentially beneficial to textile and garment enterprises engaged in domestic and foreign trade.

The State Council executive meeting held on April 13 pointed out that consumption has a lasting driving force for the economy and is related to ensuring and improving people's livelihood. It is necessary to cope with the impact of the epidemic and promote the recovery and development of consumption. Under the multiple favorable conditions of industry development policies, promotion of consumption orientation and exchange rate, the textile and apparel sector is worthy of attention.