What is the current shipping situation?

Congestion at U.S. ports will get worse until things get better. This is information from ocean carriers, forwarders and other companies.

With the decline in consumer spending widely discussed in the earnings reports of major retailers over the past few weeks and retailers lowering their revenue forecasts, many expect the relief to eventually come in the form of lower orders in Asia.

"We're hearing a lot of BCOs [beneficiary shippers] cutting orders," said Kurt McElroy, executive vice president of freight forwarder Kerry Apex, according to JOC. "The publicity of earnings reports from major retailers has put a chill on retail sales forecasts."

The question, of course, is when the drop in consumer spending will translate into higher liquidity across the container supply chain. The answer given by many in the industry is that any relief will take until the end of the year, if not longer, given that cargo flows are currently getting worse, not better.

Dominique von Orelli, executive vice president and head of global ocean shipping at DHL, said: “We expect a challenging year throughout the year. There may be some relief in the second half of the year, but schedule reliability will remain very low for the rest of the year. "

Asian imports rose 31% in the first four months of 2022 compared with the same period in 2019, according to IHS Markit. While future reductions in imports may provide relief, the challenge is catching up with imports that are already moving through the supply chain.

Inventories have risen sharply since the end of last year, in the form of higher imports in the first quarter, longer container stays at marine terminals and increased inventories at retailers, which are killing supply chains. This results in the occupancy of ships, containers and chassis, which together hinder the flow of goods for port and inland transport, just as the traditional peak import season is about to begin.

"We're expecting a very tough summer," said one shipping executive. Another noted that the time it takes for shippers to pick up import containers at ports and return them to carriers is increasing rapidly. Instead of unloading at warehouses and returning containers, many customers park unopened containers outside distribution centers for extended periods of time and pay the resulting higher demurrage charges directly, the carrier said.

The shipping line said the average number of days its containers were occupied increased by more than 50% in the past month, from eight to more than 12 days. In Chicago, the time increased from 21 to 26 days, in Kansas City from 5.5 to 9.2 days, and in Savannah from 8.1 to 10.1 days.

Behind the numbers are retailers hoarding inventory this year, in part due to waning confidence in ongoing supply chain disruptions, including the potential for labor disruptions at U.S. ports and growing demand to diversify purchases.