Weekly down 2000! Silicone has entered the bottoming stage! Will there be another "blood storm" this week? Trend analysis

Last week, after the main monomer factory launched the "surprise big price release", the market entered a comprehensive bidding atmosphere. In order to stimulate the mid-stream and downstream stocking, prices continued to decline, and even some products appeared upside down. Among them, the leading monomer factory fell by 2,000 yuan in a week. , DMC fell to 25,000 yuan / ton, and Shandong monomer factories also actively followed up. As of May 23, the DMC of individual monomer factories in Shandong reported 24,200 yuan / ton, a drop of 7.63%!

Although the upstream is bottoming out step by step, the downstream terminals of silicone are facing a serious demand crisis, and news of production suspension and holidays are constantly appearing. Therefore, in the face of the temptation of "plunging", some mid- and downstream enterprises stock up in time, but most industry insiders are not optimistic about stopping the decline in the short term. Not too optimistic. When the cost price falls has become the focus of the industry. Will there be another "bloody storm" in the silicone market this week?

107 rubber market: Last week, the domestic 107 rubber market price fell, and the market opened on Monday. The 107 rubber market quotations were relatively concentrated. Due to the poor delivery of the leading monomer factories in the early stage, the pressure on the accumulated inventory is now relatively large. In order to quickly reduce the inventory, 107 rubber It fell to 25,000 yuan / ton, which is the same as the DMC price. The quotations of 107 rubber from other monomer factories are basically around 25,500-26,000 yuan / ton. From the perspective of the supply side: some DMCs fell first over the weekend, and the price difference of 107 rubber manufacturers was relatively large. The single factories whose orders were placed at the end of the month also need to actively follow up to prepare for the order in June. It is expected that the 107 rubber will continue this week. Bidding stimulus.

From the perspective of demand, the downstream market continues to differentiate, construction adhesive continues to be weak, and the purchase is based on wait-and-see, and the quotation is passively followed up; the purchase of photovoltaic adhesive is mainly in need of replenishment, and the market is relatively optimistic. Judging from the current market situation, various localities are actively introducing corresponding relaxation control policies, the construction rate is also gradually increasing, and the confidence in real estate is slightly improved. Under the general trend of global energy green transformation, the long-term favorable trend of electronic glue and photovoltaic glue remains unchanged. However, the imbalance between supply and demand of 107 rubber is difficult to alleviate in the short term, and it is expected to continue to bottom out this week. It is recommended to pay more attention to the stocking situation of downstream and traders.

Silicone oil market: Last week, the domestic silicone oil market was quoted at 31,000-32,000 yuan / ton, and the transaction was deserted. On the supply side, the price of raw material DMC has dropped again and again, and the support on the cost side has been reduced, which has intensified the bearish sentiment of the industry. Due to the high price of silicone ether and the small production capacity of silicone oil in monomer factories, the decline in silicone oil was relatively small last week. However, in the short term, shipments will be blocked, and the risk of accumulating inventory will increase. Some companies have gradually made concessions to attract orders at low prices. Foreign brand silicone oil: In the continuous decline in the country, traders lack confidence in the market outlook and actively sell at profit. Last week, the price range of foreign brand silicone oil was 35,000-36,500 yuan/ton, down 3.38% for the week.

On the demand side, although the domestic downstream work resumption rate is gradually increasing, the lost orders are difficult to retrieve in the short term, the confidence boost is not good, and under the psychology of buying up and not buying down, people choose to wait and see, and hope that the transaction price of silicone oil will continue. Test down, form a clear low point and then enter the market. Export orders: 1. Transportation is still gradually recovering, and shipments are still subject to some restrictions; 2. Affected by the domestic continuous decline, foreign sellers and foreign trade companies have increased risk aversion and the pace of procurement has slowed down.

In the short term, silicone oil shipments are still under multiple pressures, downstream price reductions are common, and firm deals focus on negotiation. But in the long run, the foreign environment still supports domestic silicone oil.