Stabilize and probe up, partially closed! Silicone rebound and "comeback"? Latest trend analysis

In the first week of May, the silicone market was in a price scuffle. First, the DMC of individual monomer factories in Shandong dropped by RMB 700/ton, to the lowest price this year at RMB 25,700/ton, and other monomer factories dropped by RMB 500-1,000/ton. , the quotation was 26000-26500 yuan / ton, a weekly decline of 3.53%. In terms of raw materials, the price of silicon metal continued to fall, and the cost support was weak. Since the leading monomer factories maintain a high price and their production capacity is large, it is obvious to all industry players. In this atmosphere of falling and rising, mid-stream and downstream enterprises do not dare to slack off. They actively just need to replenish goods and let the more profitable monomer factories go. The rhythm of the warehouse is fast. On the weekend, the DMC of the Shandong monomer factory has risen by 400 first, and the quotation is 26,100 yuan / ton. Some monomer factories are temporarily closed and do not accept orders.

Overall, the demand side is expected to improve in May, but the new production capacity is still further promoted, the leading single factory is running with high inventory, the middle and lower reaches are worried that there will be "surprise big price increases" at any time, the enthusiasm for chasing growth is limited, and the stockpiling of goods is large. The action did not dare to unfold. This week's rebound has made a comeback, and how long will this wave last..

107 rubber market: Last week, the domestic 107 rubber market continued to decline, and the transaction price of 107 rubber fell to 26,500-27,000 yuan / ton, down 1,000 yuan or 3.6% from the pre-holiday period. On the supply side: pre-holiday shipments are not good, 107 rubber manufacturers are under severe inventory supply pressure, and DMC prices have fluctuated and fallen, and the market is weak and difficult to change. Companies are actively selling at a profit. Since individual manufacturers insist on high prices, the downstream does not dare to Too much wait-and-see, taking advantage of the favorable manufacturers to replenish the warehouse at a low price. At present, the supply side of 107 glue has different stocks, and manufacturers with more pre-orders or temporarily closed orders do not report.

From the perspective of demand, East China continues to promote the resumption of work and production, and the outdoor construction rate is expected to increase. The demand for construction rubber suppressed in March and April may rebound to a certain extent, but these benefits will take some time to ferment, and it is difficult to quickly improve in the short term. vibrate. Photovoltaic adhesives still maintain steady growth. Since the photovoltaic adhesive market is dominated by leading companies, it is difficult for small and medium-sized enterprises to enter the circle.

From the current point of view, silicone rubber just needs to be filled last week, and the pressure of 107 rubber warehouses in most monomer factories has eased, and the follow-up price is expected to be strengthened.

Silicone oil market: After the holiday, the price of DMC has an obvious downward trend, and the domestic silicone oil market is also under pressure, and the price is gradually weakening. Due to the recent lack of optimism about the overall market, silicone oil manufacturers have maintained on-demand procurement of DMC and have been operating at low inventory. With the rebound of DMC over the weekend, silicone oil manufacturers stopped falling and stabilized. Foreign brand silicone oil: Shin-Etsu announced a 10% price increase for all silicone products in May. Dow and Wacker silicone oil prices have also been higher than domestic silicone oils. From this point of view, domestic silicone oil maintains its advantages and its profits are relatively reasonable.

On the demand side, there are many domestic textile orders flowing out of Southeast Asia, and the demand is bleak. The silicone rubber market is also performing in general, and the overall demand has not improved significantly. In terms of export orders: Although textile orders flow to Southeast Asia, silicone oil still needs to be purchased domestically. According to Vietnamese media reports, many factories in Vietnam are facing a shortage of raw materials due to China’s situation control. In addition, the domestic silicone oil price advantage is obvious. Recovery, silicone oil export orders are expected to usher in a significant rebound.

On the whole, the domestic demand for silicone oil is still optimistic, and the trend is more affected by the cost side. It is expected that the silicone oil market will follow up this week and increase the price.

Cracking material market: As soon as the market opened after the holiday, the silicone market fell into a bidding situation. Because the time was too short and reversed, the cracking material companies also had no room for price reduction, but kept running steadily. Last week, the price of cracking material DMC was 24,000. ~24500 yuan / ton unchanged. In terms of operating rate: the operating rate in Hubei is not high. On the one hand, it is affected by environmental protection, and on the other hand, it is also affected by the continuous setback of profits. The production enthusiasm of cracking material enterprises is reduced, and the bidding mentality is gradually lost. However, silicon product factories and waste silicone recyclers still have no intention of lowering their prices. The current quotation remains at 10,800~11,500 yuan/ton. The new materials are showing signs of rebounding over the weekend, and some waste silicone recyclers will take the opportunity to speculate. The cycle is repeated, and it is expected that the cracking material market will remain on the verge of loss in the short term.

Raw rubber market: After the festival, the raw rubber market fell synchronously with DMC, and the transaction price fell to 27,000-27,500 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan/ton or 3.54% from before the festival. However, the leading raw rubber enterprises still maintained a stable price of 28,500 yuan/ton. The bearish confidence in compounded rubber was weakened, and they actively replenished the low-priced raw rubber factories just in need. The transaction activity has increased, but the pessimism of the market has not diminished. 1-2 weeks or so. In the short term, some raw rubber manufacturers have relatively large inventories and lack the basis for continuous rise. The raw rubber factories that received more orders this week temporarily closed their orders and did not report. Not chasing up for the time being, the trading atmosphere is slightly general.