Silicon metal rose by 13%, and organic silicon took advantage of the situation to rise! The whole line has entered the pattern of "high cost, low demand"

As soon as the Sichuan power curtailment policy was released last week, it quickly detonated the market sentiment, and then superimposed the situation in Xinjiang. The production capacity of the two major silicon metal production areas was limited, and the supply of goods fell sharply. The mood of reluctance to sell and speculation started instantly. The price of metal silicon 421# is 22600-23200 yuan / ton, up 13.51% within the week and 23.45% higher than the beginning of the month. As for the single enterprises that have been suppressed by demand for a long time, they are forced to take advantage of the cost and take advantage of the situation. DMC rebounded sharply. As of the 21st, the DMC market quotation was 20800-21200 yuan / ton, a weekly increase of 10.24%.

The high temperature weather continues this week, and the power curtailment still has a certain influence. However, from the slowdown in the growth rate of metal silicon and organic silicon last Friday, it can be seen that the demand-side digestion capacity is limited. Therefore, under these unexpected factors, the high cost and weak demand are double constraints, and the single factory is also facing a dilemma.

107 rubber market: Last week, domestic 107 rubber prices stopped falling and rebounded. Supply side: Due to the continuous drop in prices at the beginning of the month, not only the contradiction between the high cost and low profit of the single factory is gradually emerging, but also some 107 rubber enterprises are also facing this dilemma, resulting in a general operating rate, and the periodic supply shrinkage supports the bottom of the market to stabilize. The price of silicon metal has risen sharply this month, and the low profit of the monomer factories has led to a phased reduction in supply, and at the same time, the local construction has been limited. As of August 19, the market price of 107 rubber was 21,500-21,800 yuan / ton, an increase of nearly 2,000 yuan / ton from the previous week, a weekly increase of 10.18%. In the short term, the pressure on the supply side is still high, but the cost support is strong, and 107 rubber is expected to maintain stable operation.

From the perspective of demand, due to the unfavorable economic downturn throughout the year, the performance of the consumer side continued to be weak. Most of the downstream products of 107 rubber performed in general. Among them, the traditional downstream such as construction and home improvement were in the traditional off-season, and the operating rate was mostly around 50%. The overall demand for 107 glue is general. And most companies established safety stocks when the bottom of the 107 rubber was running at the beginning of the month, so there were only a few short-term chasing orders to support the rising market. However, photovoltaic adhesives and electronic adhesives, which have a small market share, are more active, but have less impact on the market.

On the whole, the supply side and the demand side of 107 rubber have been shrinking recently, thus limiting the upside of 107 rubber. The current phased supply shrinkage may support the short-term market, the subsequent supply recovery, and whether the traditional "Golden Nine Silver Ten" can arrive as scheduled, have become the key points in the trend of room temperature glue.

Silicone oil market: Affected by the continuous rise of DMC, the domestic silicone oil market rose slightly last week, with a quotation of 24,000-25,000 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 3.16%. Due to the continuous low price in the early stage, the profit of silicone oil has been compressed significantly, and some manufacturers have reduced the volume to insure the price. At this stage, the pressure on the inventory of silicone oil enterprises is not large, and the intention to increase the price is strong. The increase of foreign brand silicone oil is smaller than that of the domestic market, and the whole cabinet has a price advantage. The window for foreign brand silicone oil to flow back to the domestic market is expanded, and it has a tendency to compete with domestic silicone oil. Therefore, it also limits the growth rate of the silicone oil market. At present, the price of foreign brand silicone oil is 25500-26500 yuan / ton, and the transaction price of individual brands is lower than the domestic silicone oil price.

On the demand side, as silicon metal and DMC are rising rapidly, inquiries from the downstream of silicone oil increased last week. In addition to long-term replenishment orders, some scattered orders entered the market, and the buying atmosphere was strong. However, in the off-season of the terminal industry, the downstream order situation still maintains rigid demand for procurement. Due to the continuous high temperature, many factories choose to take holidays or reduce production, and the goods are blocked, so the inventory of finished products increases, and there is no sign of improvement in orders. It is difficult for the demand side to improve in the short term. According to the latest customs data, the export volume of primary-shaped polysiloxanes in July 2022 was 42,513.69 tons, down 12.81% from the previous month.

On the whole, the short-term support of cost is good for the silicone oil market, but the downstream demand continues to be weak, and there is no sign of improvement in the near future. The price competition of foreign brands of silicone oil has appeared again.