Rising misses! Bidding spreads again, and a new round of lows for silicone is about to hit? The latest trend analysis

In June, the heavy rain in the south came, and the silicone market was the same. It rebounded and fell, and many silicone companies were drenched. The rebound started on June 8, and it only lasted for 3 working days. On June 13, some individual factories in Shandong ushered in a decline in the opening on Monday. For three consecutive days, it fell to 20,500 yuan / ton. After the order improved, the manufacturer rebounded again on Thursday. As of June 19, the DMC price of Shandong monomer factory was 20,900 yuan / ton, while the leading monomer factory lowered its price by 1,000 yuan on Thursday to 21,500 yuan / ton, and other monomer factories were very good. The price has failed again, and they have moved closer to low prices. These overt and covert bidding undoubtedly added a pessimistic color to the market sentiment.

The long-awaited price increase is a flash in the pan again. The downstream has actively replenished its inventory in the last round. Even if it falls to the 20,000 mark in the short term, it may be difficult to stimulate a new round of downstream orders. However, some single-unit factories with higher costs may face loss-making shipments at any time. In the current market situation where supply exceeds demand, production is reduced to ensure prices, or the "only way out" for price reversal in the near future. However, the reduction of production means increased costs, which invisibly weakens its own competitiveness. It can be seen that the silicone industry has been in full swing from bottom to top......

107 rubber market: Last week, the domestic 107 rubber market price weakened and consolidated. The current mainstream quotation in the market is 21800-22000 yuan / ton, a weekly decrease of 3.74%. From the perspective of the supply side, the favorable support of the domestic cost-side DMC market has weakened, so the 107 rubber spot is weak. As DMC prices have fallen one after another, individual factories have resumed their rush for orders, and the market has resumed a downward trend in the second half of the week, resulting in suppressed market confidence in 107 rubber, thin market trading, stalemate fundamentals, and increased pressure on the supply side.

From the perspective of demand, in terms of construction rubber: although the property market in some areas has shown signs of recovery, the positive expectations are limited. At present, it is not only the real estate market, but most of the room temperature rubber dealers are still waiting to see "lower prices", and buying on dips is still a necessary choice. In terms of photovoltaic adhesives, the benefits are still overlapping, but the new amount and the increment of silicone monomers are really a drop in the bucket.

This week, the overall performance of 107 plastic fundamentals is relatively weak, mainly based on cost operation.

Silicone oil market: The recent trend of silicone oil has continued to be low, domestic downstream and export demand is still weak, and the price has rebounded and failed to fall. From the perspective of the supply side, at the beginning of the week, as the domestic DMC price once stabilized and rebounded, the confidence of silicone oil companies increased, and the market quotation rose slightly, but the transaction remained mostly low. With the deepening decline of DMC, the top three also showed signs of loosening, the cost support of silicone oil has weakened, and the supply of foreign brand silicone oil has increased. 3.45%.

On the demand side, the consumption of the terminal textile and daily chemical markets has not improved to a large extent due to the domestic e-commerce 618 activities, mainly due to the economic downturn affected by the public health event, the marginal decline of consumer spending, and insufficient improvement in just-needed. On the other hand, the market fell again, hitting the mentality of the industry, and the downstream purchases more on-demand, mainly consuming inventory raw materials.

On the whole, weak demand is the most fundamental reason. Even if the cost rises, it is difficult to transfer it forward in time, which will eventually devour the profits of silicone oil companies, and the operating pressure will increase significantly compared with the first quarter.