Raw glue rebound 600! DMC fell below 18,000! A melee before the holiday! Shoot or wait and see? Trend analysis

The "Golden Jiu" in 2022 was a bit miserable, metal silicon and chlorine methane stabilized, and the silicon of organic silicon continued to refresh the low price of the history of nearly two years. All parties have turned on the price for the price, and the loss of losses of single factories has continued to expand. At the same time as physical and mental exhaustion, the schedule of organic silicon enterprises has also been redefined. The main force is lowered on Friday (23rd) at night, a decrease of 700-1000 yuan/ton, of which 18,800 yuan/ton raw glue is not grabbed. Subsequently rebounded 600 to 19,400 yuan/ton on the 24th. The high and low price difference between DMC, the National Day holiday is close, and the logistics will be limited. Individual manufacturers in Shandong will continue to fall as soon as possible. The two days of the weekend have fallen below 18,000 yuan/ton, and the DMC quotation is as low as 17,600 yuan/ton. As of the 25th, the DMC market quotation range was 17600-18800 yuan/ton, the high and low price difference was 1200 yuan/ton, and the weekly decline was 4.96%.

At present, the contradiction between supply and demand of organic silicon markets is still prominent, and the increased losses have also made some single factories cautious with falling. With this wave of strong stimulus, it dilutes the expectations of the downstream of the giant live broadcast after the festival. At present In the last week of September, this round may also end.

107 glue continues to hang upside down, silicon oil falls to 21000

107 glue market: Last week, the 107 glue market stabilized and fell. The market shows a downward trend as a whole. From the perspective of the supply: the whole September 107 glue is upside down. Last week, with the clear and stable adjustment of many single factories, the local 107 rubber factory shipment was acceptable. There are ease. However, the cost of some manufacturers DMC has fallen all the way, and 107 glue cannot calmly maintain stability. The downstream procurement has reduced the price and reduced the amount to stimulate the mood and improve the shipment. As of the 25th, the 107-glue market quotation range was 18600-19,000 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 2.59%.

From the perspective of demand, in terms of photovoltaic glue, on September 21, the National Energy Administration issued 102.5 billion yuan from the national solar power generation in January to August, an increase of 323.8%year-on-year. The highlighting of photovoltaic glue is highly improved, or the market is beneficial to a certain extent, but it is difficult to form an effective rising driver. In terms of architectural glue, in order to effectively boost the confidence of the market entity investment, the key projects of key projects in many places start, and there is a certain amount of room for terminal demand. However, under the premise of "do not live in the house", the construction of the building glue boost is very limited. At present, the operating rate of downstream silicone plants is maintained around 80%, and it is weak for 107 glue.

On the whole, we believe that the downward pressure in the fourth quarter is still existing, but the opportunity of phased rebound is also existed. If the demand has improved significantly, or the DMC price is strong, the market may have a repair rebound.

Silicon oil market: Last week, the domestic silicon oil market continued to be weak. Due to the soft price of DMC, the cost of silicone oil collapsed. On Friday, the price of silicon oil in the leading factory fell sharply by 1,300. /Ton, a weekly decline of 5.02%. Other manufacturers have been forced to lose pressure and reduce production control inventory. It has not yet followed up the decline. However, foreign-funded brands are well shipped in the early stage. At present, the inventory pressure is acceptable. The agent's offer is stable and small, and it runs around the price range of 23700-24500 yuan/ton. In the past, DMC's unspoken decline made the downstream vacant effect obvious, and the silicon oil market was difficult to maintain stability. Some of the inventory companies probably chose to go out of goods.

In terms of demand side, the demand for downstream factories during the traditional peak season has shrunk, the contradiction between supply and demand is outstanding, and merchant shipments have greater resistance. At present, orders at home and abroad are lacking, and the atmosphere of watching at the field is heavier. Most of the actual transactions are preliminary orders. With the low -headed silicon oil innovation low, there is a moderate amount of stocking before the holiday. In view of the weak export orders in the second half of the year, according to customs data, in August 2022, the primary -shaped polysiloxane export volume was 33974.25 tons, a decrease of 20.09%month -on -month; and the import volume was 8749.39 tons, an increase of 3.60%month -on -month; it can be seen that foreign demand showed a straight line. Flow.

On the whole, the supply of silicon oil is sufficient. Considering that DMC is close to the bottom position, it is expected that the room for subtraction of the silicon oil market will also be very limited, and the pressure operation will be continued before the holiday.