Views: 0 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2022-02-11 Origin: Site
1. Foreign supply and demand
The production and consumption of foreign silicone oil are mainly concentrated in Western Europe, the United States and Japan, widely used in daily chemical, personal care, machining, chemical, electronic and electrical industries, mainly used as daily chemical additives, advanced lubricating oil, shockproof oil, insulation oil, vacuum diffusion pump oil, demoulding agent, defoaming agent, polishing agent and isolator. As the silicone market gradually shifted to the Asia-pacific region, the increase of silicone oil consumption in Europe and the United States fell. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2019-2021 has had a profound impact on global economic and trade trends. In terms of personal consumption, the overall unemployment rate is at a high level, and consumption desire and ability show a declining trend. Secondly, due to the requirement of social distancing, personal consumption is mostly shifted from offline to online, resulting in a significant decrease in travel demand, which has greatly affected hotels, restaurants, airlines and other sectors. In the real economy, disruptions in supply chains have hindered normal international trade activities to varying degrees, and normal production and transportation in areas heavily affected by the epidemic have been limited to a standstill. The potential risk that the government will have to stabilise the economy through more budget spending, monetary easing or a series of stimulus measures is also growing. SAGSI estimates that silicon-oil consumption in the US, Western Europe and Japan will reach 161,000 tons, 209,000 tons and 60,000 tons in 2020, down 3.0%, 5.9% and 4.8%, respectively.
2. Silicone oil production in China
The products of domestic and local enterprises are mostly concentrated in the middle and low end, such as conventional methyl silicone oil, hydrogen-containing silicone oil, etc. In recent years, such products show the characteristics of close symbiosis with single factories, and their share is gradually concentrated in the upstream enterprises. Due to the rapid development of downstream products such as silicone rubber in the past few years, the development rate of products such as vinyl silicone oil also matches it. Other kinds of silicone oil such as polyether silicone oil, amino silicone oil, block silicone oil and other special silicone oil production share is low, but the growth rate of consumption in recent years has accelerated. In order to avoid the fierce competition of conventional silicone oil products, some small and medium-sized enterprises with good technology turn to developing special silicone oil.
3. Silicone oil production in China
In 2020, the total production capacity of Silicone oil in China is about 540 thousand tons/year, with a year-on-year growth of 8.0%. The operating rate is 74.3%, and the output is 402,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0%. China's silicone oil exports have not recovered to the level before the introduction of relevant policies due to the sluggish foreign macro environment, the imposition of tariffs in the United States and the restrictions on the consumption of PERSONAL care products D4 and D5 in the European Union. In 2020, China's net import of silicone oil was -10,000 tons. As a result, China's apparent consumption of silicone oil in 2020 was about 392,000 tons, up 6.5% year-on-year, exceeding expectations at the beginning of the year
4, silicone oil consumption
The downstream consumption of silicone oil is very extensive, mainly including textile, daily chemical, chemical, light industry, machinery, electronics and electrical industries. Overall, textile, daily chemical and chemical industry consumption in 2020 occupy the top three