Can you handle it? Production reduction is difficult to match weak demand! Can silicone hold the 20,000 mark? Latest trend analysis

Near the end of the month, the silicone market is still shrouded in "greenness", and the price is "falling overcast". It has been hovering at this 20,000 mark throughout June, and it seems that it can't be broken. Last week, some individual factories in Shandong fell to 20,200 yuan / ton. The order received slightly improved, and then rebounded by 200. Other monomer factories have been adjusted continuously. Narrowing the spread, as of June 26, DMC mainstream reported 20400~20800 yuan / ton, down 2.14% for the week. In the absence of demand for chemical-grade silicon metal, it first rose by 1,000 and then fell by 200. The price trend is also very confusing.

At present, the last round of bargain-hunting goods has basically come to the end of delivery, and there is still no clear signal of recovery in terminal demand, and the single factory has to see between cost and demand. In the middle and lower reaches, under the repeated adjustment of the market, they do not dare to be aggressive in stocking, and more tend to fall below the 20,000 mark before actively entering the market. However, the upstream production reduction is still continuing, and the metal silicon has been slightly boosted. At the weekend, there were rumors of an accident around a single plant. Although it has nothing to do with the organic silicon device, it also caused some eagerness to rise. It can be seen that at this juncture, a little bit of trouble may lead to a market reversal. June will end soon, can silicones hold the 20,000 mark?

107 rubber market: Last week, the domestic 107 rubber spot market remained weak and down. In terms of supply: DMC was lowered by 600-1000 yuan / ton during the week, and the weak and downward cost of the market dampened the enthusiasm for market transactions. The follow-up of new orders for 107 plastic was insufficient. However, at the beginning of the week, the leading monomer factory 107 plastic not only did not hang upside down, but also rarely maintained a high level operation. Other 107 rubber manufacturers also took the opportunity to speed up their shipments. On Thursday, the leading monomer factory 107 rubber dropped 500 to the same level as other manufacturers. As of June 24, the 107 rubber market quotation was 21,000-21,500 yuan / ton, a weekly drop of 2.3%. In the short term, the domestic 107 rubber field has abundant supply, especially due to the impact of cost support, some 107 rubber manufacturers take the initiative to make profits and facilitate transactions.

From the perspective of demand, the current expectation of recovery of consumption performance has not been fulfilled. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the national housing prosperity index in May was 95.60, which was close to the low prosperity level. The pressure on silicone rubber companies is prominent, so the operation is still biased. Be cautious. In the follow-up, as the bottom of the cost is gradually clear, the inventory at the end of the month will be digested, and the willingness to prepare the downstream inventory will increase.

In the future, we will pay more attention to the actual progress of consumption recovery after the force of domestic policies. New energy and photovoltaics are still worth looking forward to. Since the current 107 plastic has reached a low level, there is not much room for decline. It is not appropriate to be too bearish on the market. It is recommended that manufacturers with low inventory can start bargaining.

Silicon oil market: Last week, the domestic silicone oil market fell first and then stabilized. The current mainstream quotation is 25,500-26,000 yuan / ton. The transaction atmosphere is general, and the downstream just needs to purchase mainly. On the supply side: DMC's support for silicone oil has weakened, and the market has a strong bearish sentiment, which has led to weak follow-up of new orders by silicone oil manufacturers, mostly based on pre-orders. In addition, the silicone oil of foreign-funded enterprises declined steadily, and the agents also actively made profits to promote the transaction, which suppressed the domestic silicone oil to a certain extent.

On the demand side, in the off-season of the terminal industry, consumer demand is low, and there is little good news in the market. The downstream is mainly to digest the pre-stocking, and the willingness to continue to fill up positions is sluggish last week. At the same time, in terms of exports: although exports hit a new high in May, the difference between domestic and overseas silicon oil prices narrowed in June, and risk aversion was also high in a falling atmosphere. Export orders still need to be stimulated by some good news.

In the short term, under the condition that the market demand continues to be weak, the resilience of silicone oil is also challenged. The pressure on manufacturers to ship products has increased significantly compared with the previous period, and silicone ethers have also begun to show signs of loosening. At present, silicone oil is constantly returning to the normal price difference with DMC.

Cracking material market: Last week, the price of new materials was lowered as a whole, and the quotation of waste silica gel recyclers also fell to 8400~8600 yuan / ton, but the cracking material enterprises have been broken like broken jars. No matter how the price of the former fluctuates, they will lose patience. At present, the cracking material companies have thrown their losses aside, and they are not active in purchasing. They focus on maintaining core customers and discuss quotations one by one. .

In general, the current cracking material enterprises are not unwilling to act, but in the case of waste silica blindly chasing the rise and not following the decline, and the downstream market continues to be weak, the cracking material enterprises have no way to make profits, and can only be forced to reduce production and save themselves. The first half of the year is about to pass, and in the second half of the year, it is estimated that some cracking plants with weak foundations will inevitably be involved in the storm and become a member of the shuffle.