Up and down again! Partial upside down! The supply and demand side is stalemate, will a new round of silicone "price war" start again?

It just started and it's over! In mid-April, the price of silicone has just rebounded and is at risk of falling again. After a short-term rebound of 100 yuan / ton last week, some manufacturers resumed the falling mode on Wednesday, with a decline of 3.7% in the week, although most monomer factories did not Follow up, the quotation remains high. In terms of raw materials, the prices of silicon metal and methyl chloride have declined, and the cost support of the monomer plant has weakened. As of April 17, the mainstream DMC quotation was 27,000-29,500 yuan / ton.

According to a number of monomer factories, DMC's pre-orders are scheduled until the end of the month, and this week's willingness to maintain stability is strong. However, due to the impact of falling costs, hindered transportation capacity, and weak demand, individual monomer factories took the lead in falling, and upstream manufacturers have a different mentality. Market traders are no longer available for rare goods, and they all say that they can't hold it and are actively shipping. Judging from the current market situation, the supply and demand sides are in a stalemate. Will a new round of "price war" for silicones start again?

107 rubber market: The 107 rubber market ran smoothly last week. On the cost side, DMC opened high and moved low, and individual monomer factories continuously lowered their quotations, and the 107 rubber disk surface was under pressure. Supply side: Due to the recent public health incident, due to the high transportation pressure in East China, the supply of goods in the region is not smooth, and the 107 rubber factory's shipments and warehouses are lower than expected. Therefore, the quotation of 107 rubber from individual monomer factories is inverted with DMC, which leads to other problems. 107 The pressure of the glue factory is amplified. In the short term, the supply of 107 rubber is loose, and there is still a bidding phenomenon in the transaction.

From the perspective of demand, the downstream market of 107 glue is currently operating in a differentiated manner, the photovoltaic glue market is stable, and the goods are sold smoothly, while the construction silicone glue, although the real estate policy is constantly increasing, but currently affected by the situation, the speed of resumption of construction sites across the country is still slow. , The performance of infrastructure and real estate in the first quarter was sluggish, and the overall demand for silicone rubber lagged behind. It is understood that after this wave of rebound after the Qingming Festival, the large silicone rubber companies just need to fill their positions and have not really entered the market.

On the whole, downstream users are still waiting and watching, and stocking is cautious. It is expected that the supply of 107 rubber will still exceed the demand in the short term, and the momentum of DMC's price support will weaken, and the downward pressure of 107 rubber will increase. It is expected that the 107 rubber market will maintain a weak operation this week, and the partial inversion is still expected to continue.

Silicone oil market: Last week, the domestic silicone oil market cost support was general, and the downstream just needed to follow up. Cost: DMC first increased by 100 and then quickly decreased by 1100, which has a significant negative effect on the market. After the Qingming Festival, various silicone oil manufacturers have different materials. Recently, affected by logistics, companies with more materials have seen a decline in DMC. Rapid shipments are realized. less than expected. However, on the whole, silicone oil manufacturers have little pressure to take orders, and are more pressured by cost.

Foreign brand silicone oil: The Zhangjiagang installation has been closed and controlled recently. Affected by the obstruction of transportation and the shortage of stock, the holders of the goods have increased their reluctance to sell, and have slightly increased. As of April 17, foreign-funded methyl silicone oil offers a wide range of 38,000-42,000 yuan / ton.

On the demand side, the domestic downstream room temperature glue and textile markets are weak, especially the operating rates of Zhejiang and Jiangsu textile markets have dropped significantly, and the finished product inventory is under great pressure. The short-term demand side still needs time to improve. In terms of export orders, due to the reduction of domestic truck capacity, and Shanghai and Ningbo ports still facing heavy resistance, the risk of overdue delivery is relatively high. Therefore, when facing export orders, manufacturers are relatively cautious in accepting orders, and passive inventory pressure is high.

On the whole, the current domestic situation is complicated, and there is no major positive fundamentals. Silicone oil companies are not confident in the short term, and they have a positive attitude in shipments, and the transaction may be profitable. In the medium and long term, with the recovery of logistics, export orders are still expected to increase rapidly.

Cracking material market: Last week, the style of new materials changed again, rising first and then falling. Cracking material companies also kept up with the pace of new materials. At present, the DMC price of cracking materials is 25,000~26,000 yuan/ton (excluding tax), a weekly drop of 1,000 yuan/ton. About ton, and the DMC price of Shandong monomer factory continues to hang upside down, coupled with the atmosphere of buying up and not buying down, the transaction of cracking materials is sluggish, and the ones that can make a large number of transactions are basically loss-making shipments. Therefore, in the face of the outrageous rise of waste silica gel, cracking materials Refused to receive. The waste silica recycler saw that the rebound of the new material was weak, and the malicious speculation eventually paid for it. Under the trend, the price of the raw edge was lowered to about 11,500 yuan / ton. However, for cracking material enterprises, the risk of a high probability of loss in the market outlook is still high with a burr price of more than 10,000 yuan, so the procurement of cracking material enterprises is still sluggish.

In the short term, under the high pressure of new materials and costs, the loss of cracking material enterprises will continue, but the profits of high-quality cracking material silicone oil manufacturers can still maintain a reasonable space. It is expected that after a period of reshuffle, the continuous growth of the silicon product market, and the balance between supply and demand, the cracking material market is expected to usher in the dawn, and at this difficult stage, it is particularly important to improve the quality of cohesion!