Market Forecast of Textile Raw Materials in the Second half of 2020

In 2020, affected by the epidemic, Sino-US trade frictions, slowing domestic demand, and structural adjustment of downstream textile enterprises, the development situation of the textile raw material industry is relatively severe. To predict the textile raw material market in the second half of 2020, we need to analyze from the following five aspects: output, price, profit, operating rate, and inventory.

In 2020, the textile raw material industry will remain stable in quantity and increase, but prices have fallen sharply. From the perspective of the annual average prices of major textile raw materials from 2019 to 2020, the annual average prices of all varieties have fallen by more than 12% year-on-year, and the annual average prices of some varieties have fallen by more than 20% year-on-year. The annual average operating rate of nylon and viscose staple fiber is below 80%; the viscose staple fiber industry has experienced gross profit losses throughout the year.

The reasons for this situation: 1) In the first half of 2020, affected by the epidemic and the Sino-US trade war, the trade between the two sides has weakened, and the volume and price of Chinese textile exports to the United States have fallen. 2) The markets in the Middle East, Africa, Southeast Asia, Central Asia and other regions are subject to the influence of politics and border disputes, and the development progress is slow. 3) The growth rate of China's GDP is attenuated, and the purchasing power is limited due to the limited impact of domestic demand. 4) Downstream textile mills are undergoing the second structural adjustment after 2000. The reform of their own business management and the adjustment of equipment and processes have limited overall purchasing power, resulting in oversupply of chemical fiber products and accumulation of inventory.