Closed soon! Silicone rose 20% in this month

There is still one week before the Spring Festival in 2022. Most downstream companies have started vacations. The trading atmosphere of silicone has weakened, and the market has little room for maneuver. Last week, the DMCs of major monomer factories remained stable, with the mainstream quotations at 31,500-31,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.65% in January. With the end of the Spring Festival stocking, the closing situation has eased. However, the pre-sale orders for mainstream monomer factories are scheduled to be around mid-February. The monomer factories that trade in spot may experience accumulating pressure during the Spring Festival. In addition, new production capacity is also advancing in an orderly manner. The manufacturers have completed the finishing work, and the trading is basically stagnant. It is expected that the market will not fluctuate much before the holiday, and more markets will be displayed after the Spring Festival.

At present, there are many bullish people after the holiday, but I am afraid that the expectations are full and the reality is very skinny. If there is a single factory that reduces the quotation this week, will you choose to take this next bus?

107 rubber market: Last week, the 107 rubber market gradually stabilized. Due to the early closure of the raw material end, the supply of 107 rubber was in short supply, and the downstream needs to fill positions before the holiday, resulting in a slight imbalance in supply and demand, and the atmosphere of spot speculation was strong. With the successive holidays of downstream factories last week, the demand side has gradually reduced, and the shortage of supply has eased. Monomer 107 rubber has resumed quotations one after another. Following the previous increase in DMC, it has slightly increased by 300-500 yuan / ton, and the quotation is 31800-32500 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of demand, construction rubber was greatly affected by the real estate depression a few years ago. With the relaxation of real estate policies, the demand for construction rubber is expected to recover. In addition, the news of photovoltaic glue is good. According to the website of the National Energy Administration, my country's photovoltaic power generation is connected to the grid. The installed capacity has exceeded 300 million kilowatts, and household photovoltaics have become an important force for my country to achieve carbon peaking, carbon neutrality goals and implement the rural revitalization strategy as scheduled. Looking at the market outlook, the price of raw materials remains within a reasonable range, and the terminal demand is still relatively optimistic.

In the short term, as downstream manufacturers gradually withdraw from the market and stop work, 107 rubber companies have less follow-up of new orders, and market transactions have decreased. It is expected that 107 rubber will continue to stabilize.

Silicone oil market: The domestic silicone oil market is in the final stage during the year. Most silicone oil companies basically stopped shipping. However, last week, many monomer factories DMC resumed quotations. 36,500 yuan / ton range, up 10.00% from the beginning of the month. Foreign brands of silicone oil received more orders in the first two weeks, and domestic agents were reluctant to sell at a high price, and the price returned to the stage of 40,000+.

On the demand side, with the Spring Festival approaching, downstream weaving and daily chemicals have entered the final stage, and the trading atmosphere of the domestic silicone oil market has weakened. However, the overseas silicone oil market is still on the high side, mainly due to the continuous reduction of overseas installation capacity and the severe situation of overseas public health incidents, and the growth of foreign-funded silicone oil supply is relatively slow. According to customs statistics, in December, the export of silicone was 45,000 tons, and the export volume reached a new high, an increase of 11.33% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 94.32%. The silicone export situation is very good.

On the whole, the cost support of silicone oil is relatively stable, and the domestic and foreign demand complementarity is optimistic. It is expected that the price of silicone oil will be mainly stable before the Spring Festival.

Cracking material market: Last week, the cracking material market remained stable. From a fundamental point of view, the waste silica gel was soaring, and the cracking material factories had been hanging upside down with new materials for nearly two months. Last week, most of the cracking plants basically closed. Due to the lack of raw edge and spot reserves, the expectations for the post-holiday trend were unclear. In order to avoid the risk of loss, the quotations of scattered advance orders were high. The waste silica gel and silicon products are also basically on holiday, and the willingness to accept orders is not strong. Before the holiday, the quotation of waste silica gel to the cracking material factory stopped at 13,000-13,500 yuan / ton (excluding tax). On the demand side, the production level of downstream manufacturers has also dropped significantly. We have learned that there was basically no intention to stock up in the downstream before the year, and the mentality of buying as needed after the year was also maintained. On the whole, there is no market for cracking materials before the festival, and the trend of new materials after the festival is mainly concerned.