After the crash! The inflection point of supply and demand has arrived, and the trend of silicone is predicted!

Last week, the silicone market set off a wave of falling prices. First, the continuous decline of individual monomer factories in Shandong opened the prelude to the silicone price war. Following the centralized production of new devices, the market supply increased unprecedentedly. The risk of accumulating warehouses in the body factory has increased, so the quotation can only be lowered in an all-round way to stimulate the order volume. As of the close of the weekend, the mainstream quotation in the DMC market was 30,000-33,000 yuan / ton, a plunge of 3,000-6,000 yuan, a weekly decline of 12.5%.

At present, DMC has dropped to the 30,000 mark. Although the quotation is temporarily stable, there are still reports that the actual order transaction has fallen below 30,000. Do you want to stock up? Mid-stream and downstream enterprises are more entangled, waiting to see the decline and fearing a sudden rebound, bravely entering the market and fearing that they will be cut off by a round of leeks. In the short term, the single plant has suffered a deep decline, the downstream has been competing for more than half a month, and the inventory is not high, so there is an appropriate amount of replenishment. In the last week of March, is it to stop falling and temporarily stabilize, or will it fall further to stimulate the downstream to focus on bottom-hunting and stockpiling?

107 rubber market: Last week, the raw material DMC market fluctuated downward, and the cost support fell rapidly. The 107 rubber market offer was significantly negative. The current 107 rubber market quotation is 31500-33500 yuan / ton, a weekly decline of 13.68%. From the perspective of the supply side, the release of new production capacity is still in large quantities, and the supply and demand pattern has changed. Whether it is short-term or long-term, the overall supply of 107 rubber market is in a loose situation. Large, in order to promote the rapid transfer of inventory, the supply-side transaction for large players is much lower than the market price. It is expected that the phenomenon of 107 plastics going high and reporting low this week will be alleviated, the price will run stably for the time being, and local transactions may still fall.

From the perspective of demand, it turns out that "gold three silver four" is the traditional peak season in the downstream, but recently affected by the public health incident, the construction market has become warm and cold, and the terminal consumption capacity is not as good as expected, resulting in a decrease in the rigid demand for silicone rubber, and downstream manufacturers are all It means that the shipment situation is general, and the "Golden Three" is obviously insufficient. In the follow-up, with the epidemic control in place, various places will gradually unblock, and the terminal demand will improve from April to May, and the demand for 107 rubber is expected to increase. But in the short term, there is a lot of pressure on the supply side for shipments, and the confidence in the downstream game is strong. 107 rubber is temporarily difficult to operate at a high price, and transactions at low prices are the mainstay.

Silicone oil market: Last week, the cost collapsed, and the silicone oil market was not immune to the downturn. In terms of supply: Silicon oil manufacturers have placed many orders in the early stage until the end of this month. If the DMC quotation is fully followed, it will be unfavorable for the shipment of high-priced orders in the early stage. Therefore, most silicone oil manufacturers do not offer quotations for the time being, and negotiate mainly. As far as we know, the current fragmented price of silicone oil in the market is 37,000-38,000 yuan / ton, a weekly drop of 5,000 yuan / ton, or 11.76%. Foreign brand silicone oil offers a wide range of 42,000-45,000 yuan / ton, down 2,000 yuan / ton for the week, or 4.40%. Prices are still high and transactions are low.

On the demand side, amid the sharp drop in DMC, the downstream has a high sentiment towards price pressure on silicone oil. There are still epidemics in many parts of the country, and the market demand is not confident enough. Export orders are also dominated by the current decline. Foreign trade companies are temporarily on hold. They plan to wait for further declines and then lock up purchases. However, under the protracted war between Russia and Ukraine, European energy has soared, and the price advantage of domestic silicone oil may remain relatively high. For a long time, after the domestic decline stabilizes, follow-up export orders are still worth looking forward to.

On the whole, the pre-orders of silicone oil manufacturers have been delivered at the end of the month, and the supply is expected to increase, and the DMC has fallen significantly. It is expected that the short-term silicone oil will run downward mainly.